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47th President of the United States Starts Strong

Disclaimer: This is not a political editorial. It is an assessment of the negotiation and leadership effectiveness of President Trump’s second term as president.

I am unsure of the frequency of this review. But at this point, I am considering reviews after the first week, month, quarter, year and then the second, third and fourth years. Stay tuned – this plan may evolve.

As an engineer, I measure the effectiveness of anything by first defining the criteria. A good starting point seems to be Donald J. Trump’s book, The Art of the Deal. In my view, he sets forth the following criteria:

  1. Think big: Have big ambitions and aim high.
  2. Protect the downside: Plan for the worst to ensure you are prepared.
  3. Maximize your options: Keep multiple options open to avoid being cornered.
  4. Be prepared: Understand the issues, including your strengths and weaknesses and those of your rivals.
  5. Communicate: Use all communication channels to your advantage.
  6. Deliver results: Ensure you can deliver on your promises and build credibility.
  7. Be strong: Be assertive and respectful, but do not let others take advantage of you.

To evaluate the effectiveness of 47 in week one, one might consider comparisons to the 45th and 46th presidents. Trump was the 45th president, and when he assumed office eight years ago, the world was different. He was unprepared and inexperienced, making such a comparison less meaningful. A direct comparison between 45’s first week and 46’s is also irrelevant, as looking at the Biden administration versus either 45 or 47 would inherently be political. To remain apolitical, the relevant comparison is 45’s first term as a context for 47’s week 1.

45’s Week 1 Assessment

In his first term, 45 started unprepared. While he was a successful businessman with strong opinions about America’s problems and several campaign themes, he lacked a clear strategy, plan and team to deliver results. Based on my seven-point review of his book, my evaluation of 45 week one is as follows:

  1. Think big: Had big ideas but he lacked experience in execution.
  2. Protect the downside: He had no real understanding of the resistance he would encounter.
  3. Maximize your options: Very limited understanding
  4. Be prepared: Not even close
  5. Communicate: A great communicator, but he often relied on intimidation rather than negotiation.
  6. Deliver results: High ambitions but he was ill-equipped to achieve them.
  7. Be strong: Consistently strong, though he was misunderstood by Washington, D.C., as a political outsider.

Comparing 45 Week 1 to 47 Week 1

Despite the weaknesses of 45’s week one, every one of those weaknesses became a strength in 47’s week one. If you disagree, I suggest revisiting the first 47 press conference held in the Oval Office, where he signed executive orders before the inaugural balls. Across all seven criteria, 47 performed at 100% on day one.

How did this transformation occur? Four years in office as 45 and another four years out of office during 46 allowed Trump to gain significant experience. By the last year of his first term, Trump had achieved notable successes, including:

  1. Trade agreement with China
  2. USMCA agreement
  3. Middle East peace deals
  4. NATO contributions
  5. North Korea diplomacy
  6. Criminal justice reform
  7. COVID-19 vaccine development

Independent of your like or dislike of President Trump, by the last year of 45 he had learned a lot about the job of president. Combining that learning with his already existing negotiating and leadership talent had Trump performing at a very high level of effectiveness when he stepped out of the picture and President Biden became 46.

During 46’s term, Trump grew further in experience and understanding.

By the time he assumed office as 47, he was fully prepared for a fast start. His methodical and measured approach led to expected actions, surprising developments and delays in some areas.

47’s Week 1 Assessment

The top 20 issues 47 tackled during week one are listed below in alphabetical order, along with my assessment. For each issue, I assessed performance based on priority and ease of implementation. I rank the highest 25% as “A,” the next 25% as “B,” the third as “C” and the least important as “D.”

  1. AI and TikTok: D – Project STARGATE moved this item to the top of the list, with 100,000 jobs and $500 billion invested in America. Great progress and a very positive development.
  2. Banking regulations: C – A low priority and appropriately treated as such. On track.
  3. Cabinet seats and presidential appointments: B – The Senate has throttled this important priority. But very much on track for now, and there is nothing more that the president can do to expedite. Unfortunately, getting this done is important to deploy many of the executive orders and key priorities. Hope to have Cabinet done in first 100 days.
  4. Common sense: B – An issue with almost unlimited scope. The executive branch is pushing this very hard, and President Trump is demonstrating this with his daily briefings and on trips to North Carolina, California and Nevada. A long road, but good progress
  5. Creating American jobs: A – A high priority, but trade policy (item 19) has been delayed because the administration’s teams are not in place. Negotiating begun on China, Europe, Canada and Mexico. On track but hope to escalate.
  6. Deficit spending and government debt: B – Getting a lot of visibility, but not easy to implement. He has created the Department of Government Efficiency and has begun work. So very early, but on track.
  7. Electric vehicles: D – A good start with executive order, but this is not a priority for this administration. On track.
  8. Energy: A – A good start on executive orders but he needs Cabinet approval. On track.
  9. Environmental and Paris Agreement: D – A good start on executive orders but requires Cabinet approval and considerable negotiation outside of the United States. On track.
  10. Global relations (NATO, foreign aid): B – A good start on executive orders and a surprising suspension of foreign aid. Good progress.
  11. Inflation: A – A good start on executive orders but requires Cabinet approval and the deployment of trade war initiatives (issue 19). On track.
  12. Medical costs: D – Some preliminary work via executive orders but requires Cabinet approval and considerable negotiation with the health care industry. On track.
  13. North Carolina and California disasters: C – President Trump moved this way up the priority list and has positioned strong negotiating positions with FEMA and the state of California. Good progress.
  14. Borders, immigration and deportation: A – Hit the ground running quickly in all directions. Good progress.
  15. Pardoning people unfairly treated by the judicial system: D – Very well prepared and has moved quickly on all fronts here. Good progress.
  16. Regulations: C – A good start with executive orders but to move further need Cabinet and presidential appointments in place. On track.
  17. Remaking the federal government: C – A good start with executive orders but to move further need Cabinet and presidential appointments in place. On track.
  18. Strong defense: B – A good start with executive orders. Secretary of Defense just approved. On track.
  19. Trade wars, with China as the first priority: A – I was of the opinion 47 would come out here quickly with new tariffs on China. President Trump has pushed this out until his trade and economic policy teams are in place. However, it is on track, but need to expedite Cabinet approval to get 47’s team ready to negotiate tariffs globally.
  20. Taxes: C – Need Cabinet approval and several others to get this moving. On track.

Great Pace for an Ambitious Agenda

My ratings on the 20 issues after President Trump’s first week are as follows:

  • Good progress: 6 items (1 A item, 2 B items, 1 C item, 2 D items)
  • On track: 14 items (4 A items, 3 B items, 4 C items, 3 D items)
  • Behind schedule: None

47’s first week is off to a strong start. Moreover, securing Senate approval for the 20 remaining Cabinet positions and over 1,000 presidential appointees is crucial to advancing his ambitious domestic and foreign policy agenda. Once accomplished, these elements will position 47 to lead the United States into what he describes as a new Golden Age. Great start, great pace – and I’m excited to see what’s next.