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Trade Wars Will Force Leaders to Redesign Their Global Networks

When it comes to supply chain disruption, “you ain’t seen nothing yet.”

My apologies to Bachman-Turner Overdrive and 1970s music. But that phrase captures the consequences of skyrocketing tariffs. Both major U.S. presidential candidates are calling for higher tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods.

Other countries will retaliate. And increasing trade wars will force supply chain redesign, whether you want it or not. Those who have listened to me for years likely have already started. Those who haven’t need to start completely redesigning their global networks now.

Think the last four years have been tough? Wait until tariffs on Chinese goods hit 60%. Former President and current candidate Donald Trump has made that campaign pledge.

His opponent, whomever it turns out to be, will do their part. When he took office in 2021, current President Joe Biden kept most of Trump’s original tariffs. Before he dropped out of the race, Biden had proposed additional taxes on another $18 billion worth of Chinese goods. I expect Biden’s replacement to continue on the tariff train.

The Tariff Landscape Creates Supply Chain Chaos

The tariff situation has become a game of seeing who can add more taxes faster to U.S. imports.

Beyond his staggering 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump proposes blanket 10% tariffs on all imports.

Biden’s tariffs target aluminum, semiconductors, electric vehicles, batteries, minerals, ship-to-shore cranes, solar cells, medical products and more. According to the White House, rates would have ranged from 25% on steel to a mind-boggling 100% on electric vehicles.

Unless Biden’s replacement believes in unfettered free trade (like I said, unlikely), higher tariffs seem inevitable regardless of the election outcome. This shift demands a complete rethinking of global supply chains.

Beyond Simple Relocation

Many companies have responded to previous tariff hikes by moving manufacturing or final assembly out of China. These moves have benefited countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Mexico and others.

However, this approach falls short of true supply chain redesign. To illustrate why, let’s consider why this approach fails.

Relocating production from China to Vietnam might seem like a solution. But the inputs and components usually originate in China. That means you still have a single-source supply chain, vulnerable to disruption.

And China has responded to past tariffs with export restrictions. If Chinese leaders decided it was in their best interest, they would cut off your supply chain’s access to critical components.

True redesign requires reimagining the entire supply chain from raw materials to finished products. That is the path to building supply chain resilience.

A New Vision for Global Supply Chains

Let’s choose something relatively simple for modern supply chains to source, produce and move: apparel.

Need cotton as your raw material? The United States produces almost as much as China. And India and Brazil, combined, produce even more.

Your supply network can explore other regions, too. Africa also produces high-quality, in-demand cotton.

That doesn’t mean identifying potential sources for every input will be easy. For polyester, China leads production of chemical-made fibers by a large margin. That may require long-term strategic thinking.

When it comes to production, Peru, Brazil and Colombia are good options. They have existing expertise and infrastructure. Analysts predict the Latin American textile market will grow at a CAGR of 4.67% until 2029. That leaves room for expanding your manufacturing base to a location closer to North American markets.

Then you could establish nearshoring supply chain hubs, such as the Dominican Republic. That Caribbean nation can serve much of the U.S. market with two-day shipping, making it ideal for eCommerce.

The more optionality you have, the better you deal with supply chain disruption. Therefore, you will need to analyze every step of your revamped supply chain operations. Building resilience requires supply chain strategies that build in optionality. These days, potential disruptions seem to come with each day’s headlines: natural disasters, trade wars, shooting wars and more.

Action Steps for Supply Chain Leaders

The following strategies are table stakes for building resilient, adaptable supply chains:

  1. Conduct a supply chain audit: Map your entire supply chain, identifying all touchpoints vulnerable to tariffs or geopolitical risks.
  2. Scenario planning: Develop multiple supply chain configurations based on various tariff scenarios.
  3. Invest in technology: Leverage artificial intelligence and advanced analytics to model and optimize new supply chain designs.
  4. Build strategic partnerships: Cultivate relationships with suppliers and logistics providers in diverse geographic regions.
  5. Embrace flexibility: Design supply chains that can quickly adapt to changing tariff landscapes and geopolitical shifts.

These supply chain strategies can help you build robust, agile networks that can withstand rising tariffs and geopolitical instability. You will, of course, need to assess risks daily and pivot quickly.

It’s Past Time to Prepare for Chaos

The threat of skyrocketing tariffs is not a distant possibility – it’s an imminent reality.

Supply chain leaders should have started redesigning their global networks when I first told them to. Still, it’s not too late to position your organizations for resilience and competitive advantage.

Embracing comprehensive supply chain network redesign won’t just mitigate tariff risks. You can unlock new efficiencies, reduce lead times and serve your customers better.

In the face of radical disruption, bold action today will define the supply chain leaders of tomorrow.