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VUCA Was Just the Beginning
In a 2019 YouTube video, I predicted 2020 would set record levels of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity.
Got that one right! (No, I didn’t predict the pandemic. I just saw how the rate and pace of disruption seemed to be confounding business leaders. I maintain that even without the pandemic, 2020 would have been a difficult year for CEOs.)
In my 2022 book Insightful Leadership, I wrote that disruption is the new normal.
Got that one right!
Now, I’m beginning to think 2019-2024 was a walk in the park compared to April 2025 and beyond. On-and-off tariffs, extreme weather, geopolitical spats, shooting wars and more keep complicating the business landscape. Or, as I wrote in 2022, assumed certainty has evolved into known uncertainty.
So, for now and probably forever, uncertainty in business is one of the few things I believe in.
Unfortunately, many leaders have their heads down. They are waiting for certainty to reappear.
As the kids say in their texts, LOL. That is not going to happen. Executive teams must figure out a way to thrive amid uncertainty.
Nostalgia Won’t Save Your from Uncertainty
The world has changed. If you’re waiting for certainty to reappear, you might as well wait for Sears to dominate retail. Or perhaps for Blockbuster to open a video store in the age of streaming. Maybe, just maybe the Beatles will get back together or Rihanna will drop a new album.
Well, as of December 2024, Sears had eight surviving retail stores, according to Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. One Blockbuster store operates in Bend, Ore. They have no chance of resurrection.
And half of the Beatles are dead, so any reunion would involve only Paul McCartney (age 82) and Ringo Starr (age 84). Maybe they will jam together sometime, because McCartney held his last concert in December 2024 in London. And Ringo is planning a U.S. tour this summer.
The opinions expressed here are certainly my own. But even if Ringo and Sir Paul team up, they will be a shell of what the Beatles were.
Rihanna? OK, it’s more likely that she will record a new album … one day. But her fans have been waiting since 2016.
Get Your Head Up and Take a Walk
So, what to do with Mr. and Ms. Head Down?
I suggest you go for a long walk. During that walk, try to adopt the following mindset:
“Yes, uncertainty presents major challenges. But uncertainty is also a tremendous opportunity for our organization to thrive amid uncertainty. We could establish alternative paths forward. That way, our company will be ready given scenario A, B, C or D occurs. What’s more, for our organization to develop alternatives, we must develop adaptability and optionality.”
Planning to deal with uncertainty will put you way ahead of the Heads Down group, particularly long term.
Of course, after that long walk, you will hopefully have thoughts on opportunities to enhance adaptability and resilience. And you’ll need a shower.
Now, post shower, you think all is well. Until you realize that you have an entire team to convince. Now you have to think about selling “let’s thrive amid uncertainty” to your boss, your co-workers and/or your team.
Perhaps it’s easier to go back and put your head down.
Before you do that, let me remind you about the cost of no action.
For each of the opportunities you have identified on your walk, what are the risks of not taking action? What are the potential lost opportunities to reduce cost, to increase customer satisfaction, to increase inventory turns, to eliminate bottlenecks, to increase resilience, to enhance competitive advantage, to increase profitable growth and more?
The Cost of Doing Nothing Is Steep
If you review your opportunities from the cost of inactivity vs. the benefits of moving forward, I think you won’t hesitate. Need some ammunition to help convince your teams? The following real-world examples illustrate how Tompkins Ventures has helped companies who moved forward succeed:
- Found the right fit 3PL/distribution network, which dramatically increased customer service levels while reducing transportation costs.
- Connected with AI tools to create digital supply chain networks that reduced manual planning, scheduling and execution while increasing inventory turns.
- Introduced manufacturing innovations that increased quality and productivity while reducing material costs and improving sustainability.
- Reduced labor costs by trading fixed-cost labor for labor on demand.
- Discovered nearshoring, reshoring and friendshoring sourcing options that reduced delivered costs, decreased exposure to tariffs and increased supply chain resilience.
- Reduced transportation costs via mode shifting, consolidations, broker/asset analysis, aligning service needs with service levels, informed carrier negotiations and more.
- Increased inventory turns by properly allocating inventory and eliminating bottlenecks.
- Improved inventory accuracy and reduced obsolete inventory through real-time RFID tracking.
- Reduced labor costs by deploying automation and robotics.
- Redesigned products through value engineering, design for manufacturability and sustainability and circular economy principles – reducing costs and enhancing sustainability.
Make Optionality Your Strategic Default for Uncertainty
Historically, executive teams have always faced challenges with procurement, manufacturing, planning, transportation, distribution, fulfillment and supply chain. Uncertainty about the future makes those tasks even more challenging in April 2025 – and beyond.
For many executives, that uncertainty leads to hesitation. Heads go down. Decisions get delayed. Opportunities slip away. Nevertheless, not facing uncertainty will create unacceptable costs and risks.
Want a better economic forecast for your organization’s future? Then learn how to thrive amid uncertainty. Get together with your teams and create plans that offer optionality, adaptability and resilience. Move fast when the fog lists and new requirements become clear.
And if you’re unsure where to start or how to get everyone aligned, let’s talk. Tompkins Ventures and our partners have helped hundreds of companies thrive amid uncertainty. We can help you, too.
Contact me today, and let’s build your path forward. It is time for you to get this one right!
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Jim Tompkins, Chairman of Tompkins Ventures, is an international authority on designing and implementing end-to-end supply chains. Over five decades, he has designed countless industrial facilities and supply chain solutions, enhancing the growth of numerous companies. He previously built Tompkins International from a backyard startup into an international consulting and implementation firm. Jim earned his B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Purdue University.