Download ReGlobalization White Paper 
A Consequential Event Begets Paradigm Shifts for Me – and Everyone in Business
A consequential event is something that has considerable impact or consequences. The election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States is a consequential event. His return to the White House marks a significant, profound shift in U.S. domestic and international policies. For business, this shift mandates ReGlobalization.
A paradigm shift for me is a time when my accepted way of doing something totally changes. For my entire career I have avoided professionally writing or speaking about politics. I am an engineer, a supply chain expert, an entrepreneur, a leader of businesses, not a politician. Now, however, a significant shift in politics has occurred that gives me no choice other than shifting my paradigm. I have focused for the last:
- 30 years on global supply chains
- Six years on how the new normal is disruption
- Four years on how the global supply chains impact everything
- Two years on how nearshoring, reshoring and friendshoring require massive shifts in global supply chains
Now, the Trump consequential event converges with my global supply chain focus. Unfortunately, there is no way that I can exclude politics from the nearshoring, reshoring and friendshoring dialogue and the pervasive impacts on supply chains. There is an action and a reaction, a stimulus and a response, a cause-and-effect relationship between the re-election of Past-President Trump and my over 30-year career in supply chain thought leadership. Therefore, a new writing and speaking paradigm for me: I will professionally write and speak about how politics affects supply chain and how supply chain affects politics, but I will not endorse or oppose any candidates.
President Trump’s Favorite Word and ReGlobalization of Supply Chains
President-elect Donald Trump has emphasized tariffs as a key part of his economic strategy, calling it his “favorite word.” Tariffs can have major impacts on:
- Where products are manufactured
- The viability of nearshoring, reshoring and friendshoring
- Global supply chains.
These impacts of nearshoring, reshoring, friendshoring and global supply chains mandate that companies pursue what I call ReGlobalization. Where:
- ReGlobalization is not the reversal of globalization but rather an evolution of globalization incorporating lessons learned from past experiences and adapting to new global realities.
- ReGlobalization is the new reality of globalization in the face of perpetual disruption.
- ReGlobalization realizes that instead of a global approach a more regional approach has significant benefits.
- ReGlobalization faces reality that single sourcing is not a viable option.
- ReGlobalization recognizes that it is best to work with countries/companies that desire to work as partners and not adversaries.
- ReGlobalization addresses the total end-to-end supply chain beginning with raw materials and ending with satisfied customers.
- ReGlobalization does not see the supply chain as linear, but as circular.
- Defining the best ReGlobalization strategy requires the evaluation of many scenarios, including nearshoring, reshoring and friendshoring.
- ReGlobalization means creating more resilient supply chains.
- ReGlobalization means having ongoing diligence to assure environmental, social and economic sustainability.
Tariffs Can Be Good, Bad and Risky
There is no question that tariffs can be an effective tool of trade policy, economic policy and political policy. At the same time, people have mixed views about tariffs, all of which have validity. In certain circumstances, tariffs are very effective (the good). In other circumstances, they are very ineffective (the bad). And in other circumstances, tariffs can be potentially effective or ineffective depending upon how events play out (the risky).
Of course, these are the reasons we will always debate tariffs. Understanding the good, the bad and the risky is important to be certain that governments that use this tool use tariffs in a way that accomplishes their objectives.
So, What Is Trump’s End Goal?
To gain insight into how President-elect Trump views tariffs, I thought it would be good to ask my AI friend Copilot about the main point in Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal.” Here is Copilot’s response:
“‘The Art of the Deal’ by Donald J. Trump, co-written with Tony Schwartz, is part memoir and part business advice. Here are some of the main points from the book:
- Guiding Business Principles: Trump outlines several principles that have guided his business decisions:
- Aim High: Set ambitious goals and focus on achieving them.
- Prepare for the Worst: Always have a backup plan.
- Know Your Target Audience: Understand who you are dealing with and what they want.
- Promote Aggressively: Make sure people know about your product or service.
- Fight for What You Believe In: Stand your ground if you think you’re right.
- Keep Costs Low: Be frugal and avoid unnecessary expenses.
- Early Life and Career: Trump discusses his upbringing and early career, including working with his father on low- and middle-income housing projects in New York City.
- Major Deals: The book details several of Trump’s significant deals, such as the development of Trump Tower, his first casino ventures in Atlantic City and his involvement with the United States Football League.
- Negotiation Tactics: Trump shares his strategies for negotiating successful deals, emphasizing the importance of persistence, adaptability and leveraging strengths.
- Public Image: The book also highlights the role of public image and media in business success, suggesting that even bad press can be beneficial if handled correctly.
These points provide a glimpse into Trump’s approach to business and his philosophy on deal-making.”
This refresher helps us understand President-elect Trump’s view on tariff being a beautiful word and the good, bad and risky views of tariffs.
Tariffs Can Accomplish Strategic Objectives
First, the good view of tariffs. The good view of tariffs is the use of tariffs as a negotiating tool to accomplish specific strategic political objectives.
President-elect Trump began to take action before his inauguration on open borders and the impacts of open borders on crime, illegal immigration and illegal drugs. Trump has been having success in getting Canada and Mexico to commit to enforcing laws already on their books with respect to illegal immigration and drugs.
President-elect Trump set ambitious goals, understood the president of Mexico and the prime minister of Canada, has made a strong case about open borders and was clear on his desired objectives. President-elect Trump accomplished his objectives by leveraging U.S. strengths via the threat of tariffs. The result will be good for all. Well done President-elect Trump, President Claudia Sheinbaum and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. One certainly can expect President Trump to continue to aggressively use tariffs as a negotiating tool to pursue important strategic political objectives.
The second view of tariffs, the bad view, is when tariffs are put in place without a well thought out plan or a backup plan. An example of the bad view is where a tariff is put in place without an adequate maturation period. Other countries enact retaliatory tariffs, causing a revengeful struggle.
A revengeful struggle is not a backup plan. Rather, it drives all sorts of bad behavior that ultimately hurts all parties involved. The outcome here can be disruptions in supply chains, increased cost, poor customer satisfaction and overall chaos. This approach is an unacceptable disaster. The results are totally inconsistent with “The Art of the Deal.” Tariffs implemented in this way are bad.
The Third View, and How ReGlobalization Fits
The third view of tariffs, of course, falls between the good and the bad. Results here come in an unlimited number of variations.
Discussions often start about using tariffs as a tool to level the playing field. Of course, each side has their own view of the situation. Each party needs to reasonably understand both their perspective and the perspective of the person on the other side of the table.
This is where the risky element comes into play. Because just like every union negotiation, every marriage, divorce and every court case, the results may be satisfactory for both parties. Or, one party leaves satisfied, with the other dissatisfied. The worst result, of course, comes when neither side leaves satisfied.
Independent of the outcome, hopefully both sides conduct themselves with integrity and a true desire to reach a satisfactory outcome. With tariffs, the deal often involves a balance, with an understanding that on some mutually agreed date each party will deploy a specific plan of action.
In these cases, there should be no surprises. In this way, each party has adequate time to evaluate their options and establish a path forward. Hopefully, each party has either anticipated the potential for not reaching an agreement or has adequate time built into their negotiation to develop a ReGlobalization path forward given the potential outcomes from the negotiation.
It is here that organizations are wise to evaluate their supply chains and evaluate the “hot spots” where disagreements or failed negotiations are most likely. They should conduct contingency planning on various scenarios to assure they are ready to address these risky situations.
How Your ‘Trading Group’ Affects ReGlobalization
For example, it should not be a surprise to anyone that the world today has two major trading groups: North America, Europe, India, Japan and South Korea are generally on the same page. The second trading group involves Russia, China, Iran, Afghanistan and North Korea, who are generally on the same page.
Nor should it be a surprise that the two trading groups often view trade differently. Therefore, if you are doing significant trade with the other trading group, e.g., the United States and China, it would be wise to evaluate the impacts on your supply chain if you face a disruption of service. It is very important for you to be able to answer the questions about redundant sourcing, alternative supply chains and ReGlobalization when you are dealing with companies or sourcing located outside of your trading group.
The Conclusion? Expect Paradigms to Keep Changing
It is not your grandfather’s supply chain. In fact, it is not your older sister’s supply chain either. And she is only 2 years older than you.
I have not tried to quantify the number of paradigm shifts per decade, but if I did, I am certain that the 2020s would win the prize for most paradigm shifts ever. And we have more than half a decade to go.
So, just as my paradigm on writing/speaking about politics has changed, many paradigms you and I held just a few years ago will change. Disruption is the new normal.
Just like President-elect Donald Trump winning the 2024 election was a consequential event for the United States. I believe your growth in understanding ReGlobalization and your experience in deploying ReGlobalization will be consequential. Toward that end here is the first release of the white paper: “ReGlobalization – Redefining Global Supply Chains: Nearshoring, Reshoring and Friendshoring in a Disrupted Global Landscape.”
Jim Tompkins, Chairman of Tompkins Ventures, is an international authority on designing and implementing end-to-end supply chains. Over five decades, he has designed countless industrial facilities and supply chain solutions, enhancing the growth of numerous companies. He previously built Tompkins International from a backyard startup into an international consulting and implementation firm. Jim earned his B.S., M.S. and Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering from Purdue University.
“Amazing post, keep up the good work!”
Very interesting and valuable perspective from someone that has lived the impact politics has on the supply chain. I’m glad you are going to include the political impact in future writing while not supporting or endorsing specific candidates.